Energy Commodities Beyond Crude: Natural Gas, Heating Oil, and Gasoline Futures

March 13, 2026

Crude oil is the raw material, but refined products and natural gas have their own supply-demand dynamics that often diverge from crude. Understanding these relationships gives you a more complete picture of energy markets.

Natural Gas: The Misunderstood Market

Natural gas prices have historically moved independently of oil because the markets are physically separate - gas pipelines don't connect to oil refineries. However, LNG (liquefied natural gas) export capacity is creating global price linkages. US Henry Hub prices now partially reflect Asian and European demand via LNG arbitrage.

Key drivers: weather (heating/cooling demand), storage levels, LNG export volumes, and renewable energy generation (gas plants ramp up when wind/solar output drops).

Gasoline: The Demand Signal

Gasoline futures reflect consumer behavior more directly than crude. The "crack spread" - the difference between crude oil input cost and gasoline output price - measures refinery profitability. A widening crack spread signals strong demand or constrained refinery capacity.

Seasonal patterns are strong: gasoline demand peaks in summer driving season (May-September in the Northern Hemisphere), creating a predictable price cycle that traders plan around.

Heating Oil: Weather as Destiny

Heating oil (a distillate similar to diesel) is extremely weather-sensitive. A colder-than-expected winter in the US Northeast can spike prices 20-30% in weeks. Conversely, a mild winter collapses demand. Heating oil inventories heading into October are one of the most-watched energy data points.

How They All Connect

Crude is the upstream input. Refineries "crack" crude into products (gasoline, diesel/heating oil, jet fuel, petrochemicals). Product prices ultimately drive crude demand - if nobody's buying gasoline, refineries buy less crude, and crude prices fall regardless of OPEC decisions.

OilPri tracks all major energy commodities alongside crude benchmarks, giving you the complete picture of energy market dynamics.